Is solar still worth it in Fresno under NEM 3.0?

If you talked to a solar company before April 2023, you probably heard a simple pitch: cover 100 percent of your annual usage, send extra power to the grid in spring, and use those credits in August. That pitch was built on Net Energy Metering 2.0, which credited exported power at close to the full retail rate.

Under California's Net Billing Tariff, commonly called NEM 3.0, that model changed. Exported power now earns credits based on the value of that energy to the grid at that hour, which is usually far lower than what you pay to buy power in the evening. So is solar still worth it in Fresno? For most homeowners with meaningful summer bills, yes. But the design has to change.

What actually changed

The biggest shift is the gap between what you pay for power and what you earn for exporting it. On a typical PG&E time-of-use plan, electricity bought between 4 pm and 9 pm is the most expensive of the day. Solar production peaks around 1 pm. Under NEM 2.0 that timing mismatch did not matter much. Under NEM 3.0 it matters a lot.

Export credit values vary by hour and month. Some late-summer evening hours can be valuable, but midday exports in spring are often worth only a few cents per kWh. That means every kilowatt-hour you use yourself is worth several times more than one you send back.

Why the Valley is still a strong solar market

Fresno and the surrounding counties have three things working in their favor. First, sunshine: roughly 270 sunny days a year and high summer production. Second, cooling loads: air conditioning runs hard during daylight hours, which lines up well with solar output. Third, utility rates that have risen faster than inflation for most of the last decade.

Because so much Valley usage happens in the afternoon, a well-designed system can self-consume a large share of its own production even without a battery. Add storage, and you can shift the rest into the expensive evening window.

How we design systems differently now

Under NEM 3.0 we rarely size a system to 100 percent of annual usage without a plan for the extra energy. Instead we look at several factors together.

• Hourly usage from your smart meter data, not just monthly totals
• Which rate plan you are on and whether switching would help
• Whether a battery can move midday solar into the 4 to 9 pm window
• Future loads like an EV, heat pump or pool pump schedule change
• West-facing panels, which produce more in late afternoon when power is pricier

Should you add a battery?

For many of our 2025 and 2026 customers the answer has been yes. A 13.5 kWh battery charged by solar at midday can cover much of a typical home's evening usage. That turns low-value exports into high-value self-consumption, and it adds backup power during PSPS events and heat-storm outages.

A battery is not right for every home. If your usage is modest, most of it happens during the day, or your budget is tight, a solar-only system sized closer to your daytime usage may give a better return. We model both options side by side in every proposal.

What payback looks like today

Across recent Brightpath residential projects in Fresno County, sample payback periods have mostly ranged from about 6 to 10 years, with systems designed to last 25 years or more. Homes with high summer bills, west-facing roof space and good self-consumption tend to land at the shorter end.

Those figures are illustrations, not guarantees. Your own results depend on your usage, rate plan, equipment, financing and any incentives you qualify for. That is why we start with your actual interval data rather than a rule of thumb.

Questions to ask any installer

Whether you choose us or someone else, these questions will tell you if a proposal was built for NEM 3.0.

• What percentage of production do you expect me to self-consume?
• Which rate plan did you assume, and would a different one save more?
• What is the export credit value in your savings model?
• What happens to my savings if I add an EV in two years?

This article is general information with sample figures, not financial or tax advice.